MATH 225N Week
Discussion_Probability
Consider when you are listening to a new patient who says they have had a fever for 3 days. You
would use your
... [Show More] knowledge and experience with probability to come to a diagnosis. What changes
those probabilities? Is it age, is it other symptoms, is it new study results? What is the source of these
probabilities and what causes these probabilities to change? This discussion is not to debate diagnoses,
but to focus on the sources and influences on probabilities.
A probabilistic approach to patient diagnosis is too often taken for granted by both physicians and patients.
Although some physicians express their uncertainty as to the probability that the patient has a specified
disease, using probability rather than ambiguous terms such as "probably" or "possibly" enables the clinician
expresses uncertainty or certainty quantitatively (Liu et al., 2018). Considering the provided case in which
the patient has had a fever for three days, the knowledge and experience with probability can be helpful in
the diagnosis. Probabilities can be changed by how the patient describes the symptoms; for instance, a
clear and accurate description of the symptoms leads to more certain probabilities being generated. Age can
also be a factor given that some conditions become amplified with age, and new study results about the
condition can also help inform the generation or more accurate probabilities.
The source of the probabilities would be clinical journals, besides one’s experience in the field. Tests
conducted in a medical lab, besides other diagnostic methods like ultrasound, radiography, and magnetic
resonance imaging can cause established probabilities to change. Clinical prediction rules related to the
intersection of events and conditional probability can have a notable influence on probabilities (Sargolzaei et
al., 2015; Holmes, Illowsky, & Dean, 2018).
Reference [Show Less]