Critical Thinking
form of cognition that enables evaulative and deterministic activities; quality of sources, identifying
... [Show More] assumptions
Creative Thinking
generates new and unidentified connections to broaden perspectives; identifying new sources, developing new scenarios for future outcomes
Mind-set
What people perceive, how they perceive it, and how they process information
Mind-set influencing factors
past experience
education
cultural values
role requirements
organizational norms
specifics of information received
Mind-set disadvantage
can color and control our perceptions--making slow to react to new information
Mind-set advantage
helps keep production on track and maintain awareness during lulls in major crisis
Principles of Perception
1. we tend to perceive what we expect to perceive
2. mind-sets tend to be quick to form, resistant to change
3. new information is assimilated into existing images
4. initial exposure to blurred or ambiguous stimuli interferes with accurate information
Cognitive Bias
1. Caused by limitations where mind employs simplifying strategies to ease mental processing
2. Not caused by emotional/intellectual predisposition, subconscious
3. Mental error that is consistent and predictable
List of Cognitive Biases
Fundamental Attribution error
Confirmation bias
Self-serving bias
Belief bias
Framing
Hindsight bias
Cognitive bias--Fundamental Attribution Error
AKA correspondence bias; over-emphasize personality-based behaviors in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior
Cognitive bias--Confirmation bias
search/interpret information in way that confirms ones preconceptions; discredit information that does not support their view
Cognitive bias--Self-serving bias
claim more responsibility for successes than failures; interpret ambiguous information in a way beneficial to own interest
Cognitive bias--Belief bias
evaluation of logical strength of argument is biased by belief in truth/falsity of conclusion
Cognitive bias--Framing
using too narrow approach and description of the situation or issue
Cognitive bias--Hindsight bias
the "I knew it all along" effect; inclination to see past events as being predictable
Primary Heuristic Principles
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring and Adjustment
Heuristic Principle #1--Representativeness
probabilities are evaluated by the degree to which 'A' is representative of 'B'; analysis of 'a' is influenced by similarities to 'b' based on stereotypes; perceive most likely outcome based on similarities; results in serious error in judgement
Fallacies associated with Heuristic Principle #1-Representativeness
Insensitivity to Prior Probability of Outcomes
Insensitivity to Sample Size
Misconceptions of Chance
Insensitivity to Predictability
Illusion of Validity
Misconception of Regression
Fallacies of Representativeness--Insensitivity to Prior Probability of Outcomes
occurs when prior probabilities of outcome are neglected; tendency to favor the 'most similar' outcome to issue; base-rate frequency must be considered
Fallacies of Representativeness--Insensitivity of Sample Size
occurs when a judged probability of sample statistic is made independent of sample size; judges likelihood of sample result on similarity of result to population, NOT the sample size
Fallacies of Representativeness--Misconceptions of Chance
people tend to expect that a sequence of events generated randomly will represent characteristics of the process; coin toss example & gambler's fallacy (streak); chance is not self-correcting
Fallacies of Representativeness--Insensitivity to Predictability
occurs when predict an outcome based on how favorable the description of issue appears; favorable prediction = favorable outcome; violates normative statistical theory that extremeness and range of predictions are controlled by considerations of predictability
Fallacies of Representativeness--The Illusion of Validity
unwarranted confidence produced by 'good fit' between predicted outcome and input information; internal consistency of pattern of inputs is major factor of one's confidence; must consider inputs that have established validity
Fallacies of Representativeness--Misconceptions of Regression
variations will normally regress toward mean; failure to understand regression leads to overestimation of actions to produce 'course correction'; providing positive/negative stimuli doesn't impact whether situation will improve or deteriorate
Biases associated with Heuristic Principle #2--Availability
Biases due to Retrievability of Instances
Biases due to Effectiveness of a Search Set
Biases of Imagineability
Illusory Correlation [Show Less]